Thursday, December 27, 2007

Thursday Morning Cupcheck - Spetsnaz in the Southleast Division

By Todd Maternowski

Top of the morning, hockey fans! Last week we dove dangerously deep into the death-defying dungeons of despair in Tom Hicks' attic, and emerged stinking of ambergris and ham. This week I was planning on writing my annual "What I Got the Stars for Christmas" column (Steve Ott - How to Win Friends and Influence People. Annti Miettinen - The Joy of Sex), but after a hasty discussion with a pair of helpful Coppell policemen and their highly convincing fists, I suddenly realized that that whole restraining order thing wasn't going to wish away itself. So instead, in light of the defensive-minded, sluggish, no goals-scoring Stars' grind-it-out victory over the Wild last night, I decided it was time to bring in the new year with a look back on my pre-season predictions: we'll see how amazingly close I was on some picks, and how amazing distracted I must have been while accidentally missing slightly on others.

Readers who want to make sure I'm not cheating (I'm talking to you, judgeknuckles773), can check out my Eastern Conference predictions here, and my West-side picks here. Note the odd similarity to real life: it's almost as if you are staring directly at the sacred scrolls of a hockey game-pickin' god. More on that later.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

New Jersey Devils -- What I said: Devils in 1st place with 105 points. What I obviously meant to say: Devils in 1st place on pace for 98 points. The Devils are a remarkably consistent team --some naysayers would call that consistency boredom-inducing snooze-key, but those people also like wearing steaming piles of hyena feces as hats. As one of only two teams in the East with 20 or more wins, once again the Devils have proven to be the class of a conference dominated by teams that like to be dominated, both on the defensive ice and in the hotel rooms after the game.

Pittsburgh Penguins -- What I said: Pens in 2nd place with 102 points. What I obviously meant to say: Pens in 4th place on pace for 87 points. 87 points --how about that?-- pretty much is where this awful team is at right now. Crosby is spending far more time whining to the officials about getting his elbow bumped while trying to make a no-look cross-ice pass to some winger they called up that week than he does actually scoring, while Malkin has taken a step back in his sophomore year, suffering from the Russian Sickness (disinterested play, lazy cherry-picking style, only hits highlight-reel shots while whiffing on most of his real chances). More importantly, with Fleury out, the Pens have had to rely on subpar goaltending to carry them, except that it has carried them straight to the NHL dumpster, held its nose and tossed the Pens in. Without a quality goaltender covering up for the young forwards' mistakes, it's unlikely Pittsburgh will even make the Stanley Cup playoffs, causing the league's marketing geniuses to advertise something other than a Crosby highlight reel for once.

The Maple Leafs are not going to relinquish their Most Goals Allowed title without a fight

New York Rangers -- What I said: Rangers in 3rd place with 97 points. What I obviously meant to say: Rangers in 2nd place with 87 points. Hmm, didn't realize that they're tied with the Pens, figuratively speaking. Forget everything I said in the previous paragraph, I was obviously full of crap. Well well well, look at the high-priced Rangers! Good thing they spent all that offseason ca$$h money on offensive talent. Wait-- you mean they forgot how to score goals? You mean to say only the Coyotes and Isles have scored fewer goals than the Rangers? Hmmpf!! Preposterous! Everyone knows that teams can only score goals if they sign expensive free agents. It's worked for the Yankees, why shouldn't it work for the Rangers? Maybe they should pony up some more ca$$h money and sign Peter Forsberg, so they can leapfrog the Isles and go straight to Scoring Sahara.

New York Islanders -- What I said: Isles in 4th place with 82 points.What I obviously meant to say: Isles in 3rd place on pace for 89 points. Once again, coach Ted Nolan is proving his value as one of the sport's most underrated coaches. On a team with Bill Guerin as captain, last in the NHL in team scoring and a minus 13 goal differential, the Isles have a winning record in a competitive division. I was worried that the Isles might have been down in the standings at this point in the season, leading to Nolan getting fired as a scapegoat: fortunately, his team has won enough one-goal low-scoring games to prove his worth as a leader, even to owners as clueless as the Isles'. Bully for Ted!

Philadelphia Flyers -- What I said: Flyers in 5th place with 55 points. What I obviously meant to say: Flyers in 5th place on pace for 86 points. Well, wasn't the 2007-08 Flyers a slap in the face of my Amazing Predictions? Here I thought they were going to suck the chrome off a fender from a mile away, but they have proven me wrong, at least in the beginning of the year, thanks in large part to two trades made at the end of last year. Martin Biron has been a quality goaltender for the Flyers, while rugged, hairy-chested defenseman Jason Smith has led his team to respectability with the same quiet determination he had with the Oilers. The Flyers are trending downwards --since the fines and suspensions for cheap shots started getting enforced, the Flyers have gotten away from their intimidating style of play-- and while they probably won't put up 86 points this year, they'll definitely do better than 55. I'd like to revise this prediction and say the Flyers will end the season with a far-more respectable 58 points. I doubt anyone would argue with that.

Northeast Division

Ottawa Senators -- What I said: 1st place, 115 points. What I obviously meant to say: Sens in 1st on pace for 118 points. Damnit!! Mothereffing Sens!! Those dicks have made me look like a fool for the last time!! MINIONS!!

Buffalo Sabres -- What I said: 2nd place, 100 points. What I obviously meant to say: Sabres in 4th place on pace for 91 points. Actually, I'm sticking to this one: before the season started, I called a slow Sabres start, followed by the team picking it up in December and taking a huge amount of momentum into the playoffs in the spring. Apparently Drury and that other guy were not as critical to the Sabre's success as the media morons thought. Watch and learn, all you hockey kemosabes out there. Watch and learn.

Montreal Canadiens -- What I said: 3rd place, 87 points. What I obviously meant to say: Habs in 3rd place on pace for 91 points. I'd like to justify my prediction on the basis that no one, anywhere, ever, thought that the Canadiens would have the #1 powerplay in the NHL. That's the only possible justification I can throw out there for the 4-point discrepancy. Am I the only person thinking the Stars should trade for disgruntled forward Michael Ryder? Seemed to work last time we rescued a disgruntled, highly-skilled forward from Montreal.

Toronto Maple Leafs -- What I said: 4th place, 80 points. What I obviously meant to say: 5th place, on pace for 84 points. Again with the 4-point difference! I should've known that in MyNHL, where 5-6 teams are really good or really bad and the other 24 teams have similar records, that even the Maple Leafs would put up a respectable number of points this far into the season. Added bonus: a whopping 5 teams, somehow, have given up more goals than the high-priced Leafs. How that is physically possible, I have no idea.

Boston Bruins -- What I said: 5th place, 68 points. What I obviously meant to say: 2nd place, on pace for 91 points. It appears the professional sports success of the Patriots, Celtics and Red Sox has rubbed off on the Bruins, as they have completely shattered my expectations of them. I still have no idea how they pull this off, as it seems every time I see them on Versus, they put up a decent fight until midway through the second period, when the collapse begins and the route is on, regardless of who they're playing that night. Nothing seems especially impressive or noteworthy about this year's Bruins team, yet they continue to rack up the average number of points. Still, if this team somehow makes the playoffs it's hard to think the Senators won't be licking their proverbial chops, or whatever it is that real-life senators are licking these days.

Southeast Division

Ovechkin, crafty Russian superspy, is a master of disguise

Carolina Hurricanes -- What I said: 1st place, 101 points. What I obviously meant to say: 1st place, on pace for 89 points. Everyone knew coming in that the Southleast Division is a festering, open sore filled with spurting puss and squirmy, carrion-devouring maggots that feed on decaying flesh and shit putrid ooze. But nobody thought it would be this bad. None of the teams in this division should come anywhere near the playoffs, and the NHL should grow some balls, step up to the plate and do what it's needed to do for a long, long time: take these five teams out in the middle of the night and silently dispense of them with a heavy shovel, then dispose of the unwanted carcasses in an anthill somewhere. It's the only noble thing left to do with these teams.

Tampa Bay Lightning -- What I said: 2nd place, 100 points. What I obviously meant to say: 4th place, on pace for 73 points. Three guys on this team take up 40% of the payroll. Somehow, that hasn't translated into a winning record. Ottawa and Detroit, take note: signing your three top guys to 40% is a sure way to win lots of games forever and ever. Follow in the footsteps of more-recent Stanley Cup winner Tampa Bay! You'll be glad you did! I know I will!

Atlanta Thrashers -- What I said: 3rd place, 93 points. What I obviously meant to say: 3rd place, on pace for 82 points. Again with the infinite suckage, the Thrashers have proven the time-worn adage that Atlanta Sucks. Whether it's the Falcons, Hawks, Braves or Thrashers, the city named after a civilization that was obliterated is, surprisingly, cursed. Maybe they could sign mid-1990s era Greg Maddux as their #1 goaltender? That might turn things around. Or not.

Florida Panthers -- What I said: 4th place, 74 points. What I obviously meant to say: 2nd place, on pace for 84 points. Florida is the perfect example of an East Coast Team I Could Give Two Shits About. Scratch that, two shits would be far more effort than I could possibly justify giving to this team. I'd give them the ass of a rat, but that could get messy. On the bright side, at least Florida plays defense, something no other Southleastern team even attempts. If they were only able to score an occasional goal, this could well be a mediocre team. As it is, I've wasted too much internet ink on them as it is.

Washington Capitals -- What I said: 5th place, 69 points. What I obviously meant to say: 5th place, on pace for 71 points. Having one guy do everything sometimes works in the NBA. As a hockey team, however, you know you're in trouble when you're leading goal scorer has more goals than your leading assist guy has assists. And if the ladiez of D.C. aren't showing themselves, don't expect Ovechkin to stick around in our nation's capital any longer than he is contractually obligated to. Unless, of course, he's Spetsnaz, and this whole hockey thing is just a clever ruse. Which I have not completely ruled out, by the way: James Bond scored 45 points in 31 games in 1972 working undercover in the Russian Super League. Those crafty Russkies may be returning the favor.

Well, that's it for this week's Cupcheck: tune in next week when I take a real Conference, and proverbially skewer it over the metaphorical coals of imaginary hockey analysis.

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• Thursday Morning Cupcheck - Tempt Not Cthlulu (Jan. 3, 2008)

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• Hockey > NHL > Stars

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