Thursday, November 8, 2007
A final analysis on Dallas elections
Yesterday morning I did what I do post-election. I always analyze the numbers, with a focus on the larger Southern Dallas Council Districts (3,4,5,7, and 8).
Here are the breakouts. They are not "official" county numbers, but you have to know the little pockets of Oak Cliff and South Dallas to break out some of the precincts. To give you a feel about these margins, the districts not listed below won by an average of 400 votes. However, if you take out Districts 9 and 14 Vote No was far ahead on the averages. This is as in-depth of an analysis as you'll see out there.
(The 'Precincts Won' are the amount won by the Vote No side)
District 3 TOTAL
For (Vote Yes) 6104 ; 46.7%
Against (Vote No) 6956; 53.3%
Precincts Won 37 of 74; 50%
Margin: 852 votes
District 4 TOTAL
For (Vote Yes) 2352 ; 45.4%
Against (Vote No) 2828; 54.6%
Precincts Won 26 of 35; 74.3%
Margin: 476 votes
District 5 TOTAL
For (Vote Yes) 2823 ; 47.2%
Against (Vote No) 3157; 54.6%
Precincts Won 24 of 34; 70.6%
Margin: 334 votes
District 7 TOTAL
For (Vote Yes) 1854 ; 45.4%
Against (Vote No) 1526 ; 54.6%
Precincts Won 7 of 38; 18.4%
Margin: 328 for Vote Yes
District 8 TOTAL
For (Vote Yes) 1533 ; 48.3%
Against (Vote No) 1640; 51.7%
Precincts Won 15 of 36; 41.7%
Margin: 107 votes
South Dallas was the only place in the south that Vote Yes won a significant number of precincts. They did do well in some pockets of District 3 and 8. The margins in Council Districts 3 (Dave Neumann) and 4 (Dwaine Caraway) had margins that were higher than the average.
Anyone that says that this wasn't a hard-fought election was kidding themselves. It wasn't a "civic smackdown" as was written in one article today. What this race came down to, as many races do, is the actual campaigning. And it's about winning the precincts that matter.
And this is clearly where Dwaine Caraway shined. From sending specific people in certain neighborhoods to glad-handing at polling places. He wasn't just working District Four, he was all over southern Dallas. You now know what I know - Dwaine is the best campaigner in southern Dallas and one of the best in the City. I think the best are Carol & Laura Reed, Dwaine, Ed Valentine, and Rob Allyn. Caraway put people in the places they needed to be, and his "in-game" adjustments are always the best. Hate all you want, but he is the Michael Jordan of the southern campaign game and the numbers always bear out. His team wins, and people all over the city are noticing.
The people involved can make or break elections. And there you have it.
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gabitalinda, says:
Michael Davis is somewhat of a common name, but is this the Mr. Davis that I know? Gaby Bucio
Anonymous
2 years agoLink to this comment | Suggest removal
EdWeirdness, says:
I've never heard as much confusion over voting as I have over the tollroad in the park. Most people just could not grasp that you had to vote yes if you "didn't" want the toll road. and no if you did. I don't for one minute think that this confusion wasn't intentional. Indeed; a great many voters I've spoken with were dismayed, and outraged when I told them that they had to vote "yes" if they opposed the toll road. Many had already intuitively chosen no because so many other issues were readily understandable (support = yes, oppose = no). I think that we need to revisit this issue immediately before any monies are spent on a toll road that most of us don't want!
Anonymous
2 years agoLink to this comment | Suggest removal
Scott Doyle, says:
Ed, I voted yes and understood quite well that's how I needed to vote if I was against the toll road.
As much as I'd like there to be, I don't think there's going to be a second vote of any kind b/c the proposition was to enact restrictions on the extent of what can be done...not whether a tollroad could be constructed. Tough to make a case for deception considering you have to support a proposition in order for it to pass.
Not to mention, there were ~90,000 signatures on the petition to bring about the proposition (meaning supposedly 90k citizens of Dallas County were against the toll road and wanted the proposition to be voted on)...only ~80,000 turned out to vote regardless of their stance. We're pretty much up poop creek without a paddle at this point.
Verified
2 years agoLink to this comment | Suggest removal
James Scott, says:
I think it's not an accurate assessment to say that all ~90K signatures should have equated to 90K votes "Yes". Personally, I signed the petition, but it wasn't until the last several weeks before the voting that I finally made up my mind. The petition was simply to get the issue on the ballot.
That being said, I think there's something to be said about the wording on the ballot causing confusing...and the misleading advertising by the anti-TrinityVote campaign purporting that a vote "No" would "Save the Trinity".
Verified
2 years agoLink to this comment | Suggest removal
Scott Doyle, says:
I see your point, James...but not even ~90K voted. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect at least as much turnout as there were signatures on the petition which sent it to a vote.
I entirely agree the campaigning efforts were intentionally misleading. However, you can't just say "No tollroad" on the ballot b/c that's not what it's about...pretty sure there was still going to be a tollroad even if this passed, simply not running through the park. While I agree the ballot was probably confusing for a lot of people, can you really blame one side or the other for voter ignorance on the issue? At what point do we hold the voters themselves accountable for not taking the time to understand what it specifically is they're voting on?
Had the ballot itself been misleading, I'd feel differently. Fact of the matter is that in order to keep the tollroad "out of your park", citizens had to <i>support</i> restrictions which would do so. Like I said, I'd much prefer this to be tossed out and voted on again...but I honestly don't think it would be fair.
Verified
2 years agoLink to this comment | Suggest removal
James Scott, says:
I agree...you would think if ~90K cared enough to sign the petition, at least that many, if not more, would care enough to vote - regardless of which side.
I also agree that if you actually read the ballot, it was fairly self explanatory as to what you were voting for. I'd like to think that those that actually took the time to vote would have taken the time to know for sure what a yes/no vote meant...unfortunately I can imagine many out there that may have just gone off of the last billboard they happened to see and voted without actually reading.
I can't imagine another vote getting done...I think we can all be thankful that at least the issue was brought to light...and that the proponents of the TrinityVote seem dedicated to holding the opposition to their promises/claims on the issue.
Verified
2 years agoLink to this comment | Suggest removal