Thursday Morning Cupcheck - Gettin’ it Right in the Second Round

by Todd Maternowski

Hola, mis hombres de la Hockey! Last week we discussed just how amazingly right I was on 7 of the 8 Stanley Cup playoff series (I will forever hold a grudge against the Calgary Lames for laying down in the second period of Game 7, ruining my perfect record with their inability to play defense. May the fleas of a thousand camels infest their armpits!) (Of course, I will man up about it and take the blame for the Flames: after all, only a moron would pick a Mike Keenan team to win an actual playoff series. Keenan hasn't won in the playoffs since World War 2, and San Jose was the luckiest team in the first round not named Pittsburgh to have drawn them. How that series got to seven games is beyond me) (Enough with the parentheses (even tho I like using them (especially when I want it to seem like I'm whispering (or making an 'aside')), but that's quite enough (at least for one poorly-written hockey article))).

I was planning on dedicating this column to the well-founded conspiracy theory that the Stars would have won in four, but needed a third home game to rake in maximum profits and so threw two games, but in light of the eventual Stars victory, I'd like to say: "YEEEEAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" As pathetic as this may sound to many of the other teams in the playoffs, just getting to the second round felt like winning our own Personal Stanley Cup. Being at Game Four was amazing -- clearly the loudest I've ever heard the AAC (one week later, my vocal chords are still a full octave lower), even rivaling the old Reunion crowds-- and when Loui Eriksson scored that series-icing third goal in Game Six, I screamed like I'd just been shot. For the Stars, who were the Tracy McGrady of the NHL, the second round is indeed the Promised Land: this was a team that was specifically built for long playoff runs, yet which could not win an opening series to save its life. Now that the Stars are in full-on rebuilding mode, they dominate the defending Stanley Cup champions and move on. Mark, Jerry? You paying attention to this?

Without further ado, having nailed so many of the first round series on the nose, I will now turn my prognosticating prowess to the second round. I'm fully aware that by bragging about going 7-1, I'm setting myself up to be a Victim of My Own Hubris, but the scoreboard talks, ESPN/SI/TSN/DMN walks, baby.

Eastern Conference Semifinals

Montreal #1 versus Philadelphia #6 - After nearly collapsing against a vastly inferior opponent, the Canadiens celebrated in the traditional effete pencil-necked manner: torching cop cars and setting downtown Montreal ablaze. Unfortunately for the Canadiens, they now face a team very similar to the Bruins, only better: the ballsy, cheapshotting Flyers. This series is screaming "upset": the skill-first Canadiens might buckle under the usually-uncalled physical play of the Flyers, and the mere fact that the Flyers defied Gary Bettman and beat the Capitals (preventing the NHL's pants-wetting Pens-Caps/Crosby-Ovechkin matchup) should prove just how big Philly's cajones are. Carbs is a hell of a coach to get Montreal this far, but likely he will get no farther against these thugs: they'll probably win the first two games as the Flyers focus their energies and their crosschecks on Saku Koivu's lower lumbar area, but the longer the series goes, the more the advantage goes to the younger, faster, tougher Flyers.

My Prediction: Flyers in seven. Koivu and Kovalev had it easy in the first round, but in this series they'll be too busy skating for their lives to score ref-assisted powerplay goals.

What Will Actually Happen: Flyers in six. Montreal fans won't even get the honor of torching their own city after a disappointing home loss, as the Flyers clinch the last four games after dropping the first two.

Pittsburgh #2 versus Rangers #5 - It seems like eons go that the Pens swept the Sens in one of the most embarrassing displays of playoff effort in recent memory. Now the real question is: did the Pens have it too easy? Will they be spoiled from the microwave-esque instant gratification of an easy sweep? The Rangers were far more impressive in their five-game victory over a tough-but-snakebitten New Jersey team, and this Rangers team has a few things going for it that the Senators didn't have: goaltending and goal scoring, for example. Also, Heart. And Drive. And Someone to Annoy/Cheapshot Sidney Crosby. The Senators had none of these things in the first round, and it could get ugly for Crosby and crew if they think the Rangers bend over and take it like the Sens.

My Prediction: Rangers in six. This should be a highly entertaining series, as one of these two teams will likely represent the Eastern Conference in the Finals. Also, the amount of public whining and diving should reach near-epic proportions in any series involving both Crosby and Avery.

What Will Actually Happen: Rangers in five. All four Rangers wins will be by a single goal save the series-closer, while the Penguins will be granted one blowout victory to tease their fans with an Eventual Future Greatness That Will Never Actually Happen. Oops--did I just admit that publicly? Sorry, I was searching through some of the league's classified documents, and the Penguins were never meant to win the Cup. It's all rigged, you know. Templars. Yep.

Western Conference Semifinals

Detroit #1 versus Colorado #6 - A lot is being made of the Western Conference having the exact same teams in it as they did ten years ago, but these are totally different teams: Lidstrom, Draper, Maltby, Foote, Forsberg and Sakic... who are these guys, anyways? I'll have to read my media guides a little more carefully to sort through all these weird names. Anyways, this promises to be an exciting series....on paper. And only if that paper is made of glow-in-the-dark breasts and shooting roman candles into your face. There are a lot of overly-hopeful Avs fans and writers who think that defeating the Minnesota Wild in the playoffs is an amazing accomplishment. But comparing a series victory over the Wild to a series against the Red Wings is like beating the stuffing out of a crippled child, then suckerpunching Kimbo Slice in the back of the head because you're feeling tough. In other words, it's a recipe for disaster, and this promises to be easily the least entertaining of all the second round series.

My Prediction: Detroit in four. This series is about Unstoppable Force versus Immovable Object: will Forsberg and Hedjuk's penchant for diving triumph over the officials' reluctance to ever call penalties on the Red Wings? Nothing gets in the way of Forsberg and the ice if he feels a slight tap on his elbow and a Red Wing is within fifteen feet of him; but no official in the NHL has the balls to make a call on Detroit after the Wings agreed to pay for all those secret vacation homes for NHL refs. One thing will be certain: the rink will get larger as members of one or both teams will be crying on the ice because they didn't get their way. And then the Red Wings will score a highlight-reel goal.

What Will Actually Happen: Detroit in five. The Avs have enough talent to steal at least one game from the Wings, but even saying that, I'm not sure it's ever going to happen. But I was somewhat wrong about Nashville, who took two games from the Wings and sent another game to overtime. If a team like Nashville could take the Wings to six, then the Avs, with tons more talent, should easily be able to take the Wings to five.

San Jose #2 versus Dallas #5 - Ah, once again, the best series in the second round. This should be an excellent series, as neither team had any real advantage over the other during the regular season, and the road team won six of eight meetings. That's good for the Stars, who seem to play better on the road in general, and a disadvantage for the Sharks, who played some pretty pathetic home games both in the regular season and playoffs. Watching their first round series, it seemed the Sharks just expected the Flames to roll over and die so that the Sharks could cruise, Pittsburgh-style, into the next round and beyond without actually having to exert themselves. Pesky Flames! The Stars, meanwhile, had the most impressive "upset" of the opening round, and have a lot of momentum and some much-needed rest going into this Pacific Division battle. Not to mention, Dallas may be getting it's best player, Sergei Zubov, back in time for this series.

My Prediction: Dallas Stars in six. Dallas will inevitably lose Game One due to the overly-long layoff between games, and lose Game Four at home due to the overly-short next-day turnaround there, but will win every other game en route to the much-desired matchup against the Red Wings in the Conference Finals, the playoff foe Stars fans have been waiting for since 1998.

What Will Actually Happen: Stars in six, exactly as I predicted it will go down. The hockey gods are looking forward to a Stars-Rangers Cup Finals --Lundqvist on Lundqvist action!-- and this overrated, tissue-soft Sharks team will prove to be just another bump in the road.

Well, that's it for this round of perfect predictions. Tune in next week when I describe the scene in the second period of Game Three, as the lights at the AAC dim right before the Stars' fourth powerplay, and a shaft of brilliant light shines on the tunnel to the lower bowl --as Sergei Zubov, in full pads, glides effortlessly down the stairs, past the Stars' bench and onto the point to masterfully orchestrate the remainder of the Stars' next "upset" -- all the while, "Eye of the Tiger" will be playing over the AAC's massive speakers. You heard it here first!