Thursday, August 28, 2008

Thursday Morning Cupcheck - Breakin’ 2: Eastern Conference Bugaloo

By Todd Maternowski

Manana mas buenos, hockey fans! Last week we waxed philosophic on the notion of Contraction, a.k.a. The Greatest Idea Ever --after all, it makes perfect sense that fans of hockey would enjoy seeing less of it, similar to how naked lady fans would enjoy seeing fewer naked ladies. But more on that later. This week, I was planning on penning my penta-annual 'Who The Hell Do They Think They're Kidding' article decrying the absence of blindfolds for goalies, when I looked at my sundial and saw the most amazing sight sore, cracked-out eyes have ever seen: it's only about a month more to training camp!

Yeah? No? Not excited? What are you, dead? Training camp = almost preseason!! Hold on, let me get a change of pants.

[THERE ARE NO PAUSES] Ah, much better. What the month-until-training-camp-period signifies, is that it's traditionally time to make your season predictions. As many of you readers may recall from last year, I was pretty much 99.9% right, and even more righter when you forget that the Philadelphia Flyers ever existed on the Material Plane. This year's predictions will be no different: I'll hit up the pathetic, overrated Leastern Conference first, and next week I'll try and remember to follow up with an expose on the Super-Fist-Awesome Western Conference. So buckle up, save this page in your bookmarks and come back to it 10 months from now, 'cause here are the most startlingly accurate preseason predictions in el mundo de hockey, complete with spot-on points totals for added chutzpah.

Eastern Conference Standings

Atlantic Division

New Jersey Devils -- Much is made of the ultra-competitive Atlantic Division; almost as much as how the Devils are a fading team. But most of that is pure horseshit: all of the teams took a step backwards this season, except for the Devils, who held steady. Remember this: the team that signs the least free agents over the summer is almost always going to do the best the following fall/winter/spring, and vice versa. This will become even more apparent with a couple of other teams in this division who consistently refuse to heed my sage advice. Look for the Devils to win tons of games 0 to -2, as is their wont, playing exactly the kind of hockey that 80s-loving defense-and-goaltending-haters despise.

My Prediction -- 1st place, 104 points

What Will Actually Happen -- 1st place, 103 points

The Hoff says, "Mr. Super Mario, tear down this Mellon Arena!"

Philadelphia Flyers -- No other team last year forced me to re-consider my time-honored method of research, which up until that point had consisted of waking up from a heroin-drag in the back seat of a strangers' van and writing a hockey column while shooting Bogota Bitchslap directly into my brainstem. That's the only possible explanation I can make up for not realizing the Flyers signed (the perpetually underrated) Jason Smith last season, and dismissing them outright as the New York Knicks of Hockey. This season, however, I am proud to say that I actually looked up where Jason Smith is headed this year (Ottawa, as it turns out), and feel confident in predicting a massive slide in the standings for this talentless collection of moronic thugs. However, since everyone in the division is taking a dive, the Flyers will still float up the standings, Southeast Division-style.

My Prediction -- 2nd place, 97 points

What Will Actually Happen -- 4th place, 91 points

New York Rangers -- The next two teams on this list achieved startling success by sticking with their youth, and, unhappy with the results, have decided to spend millions on free agents in order to completely tank the next three seasons. The Rangers used to be the poster-boys for overspending and underachieving, and I'm happy to say that after a small period of winning due to playing the young kids and draftees, the real New York Rangers are back, babay!!! Signing past-their-prime vets who were unhappy with their previous teams is a classic Yankee Fail Move, and should work wonders for absolutely everybody else in the conference this season. A 29-team 'Thank You and Welcome Back, Glen Sather' card is already on order for April 2009.

My Prediction -- 3rd place, 94 points

What Will Actually Happen -- 3rd place, 93 points

Pittsburgh Penguins -- While they probably didn't willingly want to sign the vast numbers of overrated free agents that they did, the Penguins's hand were tied this offseason, as they became the East Germany of Professional Sports, with players crawling under barbed wire and sneaking past guard towers in order to escape. While they will probably benefit from the loss of empty-points-producer Hossa, the loss of guys like Roberts, Hall and Conklin will catch up to this team in a big way. Signing Satan and Fetotenko will do more than catch up to them, it will rocket them down the standings faster than a Sidney Crosby no-touch dive. This team still has plenty of expensive talent, but the Bride Left at the Altar Syndrome will not fail to devour this '08 overachiever like it has every other Cup loser in the last decade.

My Prediction -- 4th place, 93 points

What Will Actually Happen -- 2nd place, 98 points

New York Islanders -- Wow.. the less said about this team, the better. Everything rises and falls on leadership, and if you've just canned Ted Nolan but kept Bill Guerin, you're in serious trouble, standings-wise. Overpaying for Streit and Weight won't seem nearly so bad, though, since they were able to successfully dump Satan, which should even things out. Streit fantasy owners, get ready for a frustratingly incompetent 23-point season for your powerplay stud.

My Prediction -- 5th place, 72 points

What Will Actually Happen -- 5th place, 65 points

Northeast Division

Montreal Canadiens -- While Guy Carbonneau will probably get unfairly snubbed as a player for the Hall of Fame, he will absolutely not be denied his place as a coach. This mensch will continue to mentor and lead this team to victory, bringing the same successful formula he had with the mid-90s Canadiens and late-90s Stars teams --tight defense, great goaltending and a lethal power play-- to the top of the Eastern Conference once again. Getting rid of dead weight in Streit, Ryder and (possibly) Brisebois should make this team even more formidable, possibly even to the point of being able to compete with the Western Conference Champion in the Cup Finals. Hah, you caught me --just kidding, no Eastern team will be able to compete on that level this year. But the Canadiens will be closer than anyone else here.

Pictured: Vesa Toskala showing all kinds of awesome

My Prediction -- 1st place, 108 points

What Will Actually Happen -- 1st place, 111 points

Buffalo Sabres -- This young, fast team re-signed the guys they needed to re-sign, and kept the nucleus of their group intact for another run at '08-09. I predicted last season that they would start slow (hah! correctamundo, bitchez!!) before picking up steam in the second half (hah!! more or less right, suckas!!). This season will make sure Sabres fans forget that Drury and Briere and Campbell ever left, as the Sabres make the biggest positive jump in the standings of any Eastern Conference team. You heard it here first!

My Prediction -- 2nd place, 104 points

What Will Actually Happen -- 3rd place, 96 points

Ottawa Senators -- I know that I regularly bash teams that rely too heavily on free agents to turn their team around, but this year I think the Sens have finally done it right. Signing Ruutu and Jason Smith is exactly what this team of me-first selfish softies needed after last year's embarrassing trainwreck of a team. Dumping Redden and the two Carolina mummies was also a great move, although the team's once-great blueline corps is now looking amazingly thin. Still, this is a team that drafts exceptionally well, and a handful of mid-season surprise call-ups should provide the jolt of oompf this team will need to get back into the swing of things after a miserable '08.

My Prediction -- 3rd place, 99 points

What Will Actually Happen -- 2nd place, 101 points

Boston Bruins -- Once again, I have no idea how this team avoids the 50-point mark in the standings: while they seem to win most of their games 2-1, every single time I watched them last year they lost by an average margin of 4-6 goals, and looked completely out of their league. This weird phenomenon continued during the playoffs, when I saw them get wasted by Montreal, stopped paying attention, then tuned in again only to see them collapse in Game Seven. Bruins fans, I will gladly accept all forms of payment not to watch your team's games this season --you get a winning record, and I'm not kept up at night after having witnessed the hockey atrocity that is the Bruins "defense."

My Prediction -- 4th place, 79 points

What Will Actually Happen -- 4th place, 89 points

Toronto Maple Leafs -- If ever there was a team that was begging to be contracted, this is it. How a team with Toronto's financial and historical resources can consistently take a dump on the most basic of hockey fundamentals, year after year, is beyond me. Small wonder so many in the Canadian media want all or most of the Sun Belt teams to move back to Canada --at least they'd have a real team to root for, for once. Citizens of Canuckia should thank their lucky stars that all of the most incompetent managers in the entire country are concentrated in the Maple Leafs' front office, and not in their healthcare system where they could do irreversible damage. Bonus prediction: sometime within the next five years --probably after the Big Bad Bloated Bag Brian Burke ascends to Toronto's GM position-- the Hockey Gods will abandon their long-standing position of non-interference, rip open the Heavens and forcibly re-locate the Maple Leafs to Thule, Greenland, blackening the earth where the Toronto front office once practiced its blasphemous heathenry.

My Prediction -- 5h place, 76 points

What Will Actually Happen -- 5th place, 55 points

Southeast Division

Washington Capitals -- Uggh, do we really have to talk about this division? Can't we all just assign a winner, and move on? No? It's in my contract? Ahhh.... crap. Alright, so we have the pathetic Southeast Division, full of teams that win Stanley Cups by accident and can't seem to remember how they got there. This year, it's the Capitals turn to climb and scratch their way to the top of Mount Awful. The team is well-coached, re-signed the guys they needed and even added a wild card in the once-relevant Jose Theodore. Could Theodore be the next Ty Conklin? Only an unforgettable stretch of games in mid-January will tell! The real test of this team will happen in May, when they inevitably face down the #6 seed and see if Ovechkin can build off last year's up-and-down playoff performance.

My Prediction -- 1st place, 96 points

What Will Actually Happen -- 1st place, 100 points

Carolina Hurricanes -- This team is headed in the wrong direction, but the rest of the division is not quite ready to take advantage of it just yet. The Hurricanes' position in the standings will basically remain the same, as this team gets progressively older and slower. Still, they have the core of a great defense, especially if they can re-sign unrestricted free agent Bret Hedican, and have enough young forwards to make a run at the least-meaningful division title in hockey.

My Prediction -- 2nd place, 93 points

What Will Actually Happen -- 3rd place, 89 points

Atlanta Thrashers -- This team has long been my whipping-post for everything wrong in hock---wait, scratch that, I just remembered the Maple Leafs exist. Still, the Thrashers were an offense-only team of cherrypicking forwards that categorically refused to play hockey, and as a result generally lost most of their games. I know, I know: hard to imagine. This year should be radically different, as new head coach John Anderson brings a winning pedigree to the Lost City of Atlanta, and should whip this otherwise-pathetic collection of has-beens, never-were's and someday-might's into an actual team. His job will be the toughest in the NHL, considering the roster he's been given --but considering the division he's in, an improvement in the standings is almost a given. Fantasy owners should look to Ron Hainsey: while ridiculously overpaid, his offense-only abilities should make for a breakout season, despite what the best minds in the hockey media are telling you (your plus/minus will take a huge hit, however).

My Prediction -- 3rd place, 91 points

What Will Actually Happen -- 2nd place, 92 points

Florida Panthers -- Every year I am contractually obligated to remember that there is an allegedly professional team in Florida, and every year I groan and mutter profanities under my breath. So Bouwmeester signed for another year, eh? Great news for his fantasy owners, who get him in a self-serving contract year. Bad news for all ten Panthers fans, who will never see him again after this season. Fun fact: Florida sucks, and I can say that without fear of anyone in that entire godforsaken state reading this, as they're all too busy having their testicles bitten off by alligators and shooting cocaine traffickers for sport to set up their dial-up internet connections.

As new coach of Tampa Bay, Barry Melrose even gets his own personalized stall

My Prediction -- 4th place, 84 points

What Will Actually Happen -- 4th place, 84 points (Ka-ching! Nailed it! YESSSSS!! Finally!)

Tampa Bay Lightning -- This year's Lightning will undoubtedly provide more unintentional hilarity than some entire divisions. Want to see your favorite team score three hat tricks? Better circle that date against Melrose's Mavenly Matrons! Like it when head coaches call out their players for suckage using the national media? Then you will love this year's Tampa Tards! While this team is basically taking every single concept I have ever railed against on how Not To Build a Team, I'm actually filled with giddy excitement at the prospect of watching this team next year. It'll basically be like watching this year's Texas Rangers, except that Tampa will have no chance at leading the league in offense. Yes, that's right: even the Islanders and Maple Leafs will have someone to point at and laugh, and frankly, those Toronto-Tampa matchups might be the most entertaining games of the entire season. Particularly if Bill McCreary is refereeing: then the Trifecta of Suck will be Complete.

My Prediction -- 5th place, 62 points

What Will Actually Happen -- 5th place, 70 points

Well, that's it for this week's Cupcheck. Tune in next week when I casually introduce East Coast hockey fans to the Western Conference, and they finally discover who's been beating the eternal living shit out of their overrated teams for the past two decades

Related stories

• Thursday Morning Cupcheck - Go West, Old Men (Sept. 4, 2008)

See more stories in:

• Hockey > NHL > Stars

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