West and Clear’s predictions for Fort Worth in 2009

by Steve Smith of West and Clear

I love reading prediction columns because it’s fun to laugh at people who are willing to be so wrong, so publicly. Well, I for one am looking forward to becoming even more of an object of ridicule than I already am. Let’s get started!

* Stock Show Weather: We will have ice and snow during the Stock Show. Maybe not much of a stretch, but I gotta start somewhere.

* Ugly Local Election: Fort Worth goes to the polls the vote on the Mayor and City Council on May. Maybe it’s a carry-over from the circus of the 2008 election, but I think it could be an ugly election cycle. I predict that Cathy Hirt will challenge Mike Moncrief for Mayor but Moncrief will win reelection with plenty of breathing room. I believe that Carter Burdette will not stand for reelection in District 2. I believe that Brenda Silcox will decide to run for her late husband’s vacant District 3 seat and will win in a runoff. I believe that Danny Scarth will face an anti-gas drilling challenger in District 4, but hang on for re-election by a narrow margin. I believe the most entertaining race will be in District 8 where fellow blogger Suzette Watkins will challenge Kathleen Hicks, but I believe Hicks and all of the other incumbents running will win re-election.

* Chesapeake Energy Acquired: Now this is the kind of crazy-ass prediction you are looking for. However, this isn’t pure jerkitude, there’s actually a basis in reality. In the energy industry next year, those with cash will prey on those without. For example, BP CEO Tony Hayward has said he is interested in picking up bargains in the oil and gas sector, specifically those that “have been reinvesting more than 100% of their cash flow, and that’s no longer possible.” Sounds a little like BP’s highly leveraged sometimes-business partner, Chesapeake Energy, doesn’t it? Also, ExxonMobil is dying to get into a shale play somewhere very soon. The cash is out there, and Chesapeake shareholders would be open to more stability.

* Streetcar!: It will happen. This isn’t much of a stretch, either. The green light on this looks like a lock on approval of the proposed modern streetcar system.

* The DFW Morning Star-Telegram News: Everyone keeps asking what’s next for newspapers – and by everyone I mean the people who still care, which seems to be a continually diminishing number. I believe the ultimate solution will be a hybrid of several different models rather than one monolithic model. But in the short-term I believe that newspaper giants will ride the old business model as far as it will take them. Expect lots of mergers, antitrust exemptions and strange bedfellows. After discussing the other day how bad things are at McClatchy, it’s worth noting that the balance sheet ain’t pretty at A.H. Belo either. I’m predicting a marriage of convenience in some form in 2009, not just a continuation of their content sharing. The two will become one.

That’s it. Now that I’ve made an ass out of myself, tell me what your predictions are.