In presidential race, winning the Texas vote will be difficult and costly (but worth it)

by Vince Leibowitz of Capitol Annex

For both Democratic and Republican presidential candidates, all eyes are on Texas for the March 4 Primaries. It’s a delegate-rich state, comes with a load of big donors -- both Republicans and Democrats -- and could be the prize that gives one lucky Democrat and one lucky Republican the presidential nomination.

However, to win the Texas vote –- and win it decisively, something necessary to do under Texas’ delegate selection plan to fully take advantage of the –- it will be a difficult and costly battle for all presidential candidates.

First and foremost, Texas is the largest state in geographic size which is in play on March 4 (that goes without saying since it is the second largest state in America). Thus, an Iowa-style bus tour isn’t really possible unless a candidate simply decides to do part of the state. It can take you as long to get from North Texas to the Rio Grande Valley as it does to actually drive from Iowa to Texas. Physical size is indeed a hurdle that the campaigns will have to overcome because Texas voters are spread out. Even getting between the major metro areas (i.e. from Dallas to Houston to San Antonio to Austin to Laredo to El Paso to Amarillo, etc.) isn’t just a hop in a car and an hour’s drive from anywhere.

Second, Texas is an expensive state in which to wage a campaign. This is, of course, closely tied to the state’s size. You simply can’t reach more than a fraction of the electorate in person through rallies, etc. (save earned media you may get from the rallies). The main ways to reach Texas voters are through television, radio, direct mail, and online. Online isn’t a particularly expensive hurdle because the campaigns already have this kind of thing in place. TV, direct mail, and radio are, however, expensive, and more so than in any other state up for grabs on March 4 because of both the sheer number of media markets in the state and the high costs associated with several of those markets. The media markets in Houston, Dallas and San Antonio are, in fact, among the 11 most expensive broadcast media markets in the entire nation. No other state in America contains more than one of the nation’s 11 most expensive media markets (which are New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Phoenix, Miami, Denver, Atlanta, and Washington, DC). As for the sheer number of media markets, take a look at just how many media markets we are talking about:

To fully cover Texas with television, you actually have to buy in media markets that include Oklahoma and Louisiana. In fact, to reach Marshall (which includes Harrison County and a number of minority Democratic votes that could make a difference in a presidential primary), you almost have to buy both in the Tyler/Longview market and the Shreveport market. To reach voters in Paris, Texas, you’ve got to buy into the Hugo, Oklahoma market. Too, in terms of value for the money, highly rated stations in the state’s smaller markets (such as KLTV in Tyler/Longview) are insanely expensive, comparatively speaking. (Of course, this all becomes more convoluted when you have the debate of buying local network stations versus cable, etc.). And, even the smaller markets have more than one TV station. Tyler/Longview has CBS, ABC, NBC, FOX and WB affiliates, although the ABC, NBC, and CBS stations have the lion’s share of viewers. There are, in fact, well over 100 full power TV stations in Texas (counting PBS stations and independent, etc. stations on which advertising either isn’t permitted or would be futile).

By contrast, here is a look at media markets in Ohio, the next delegate rich state up on March 4:

And, not a single one of those media markets is one of the nation’s 11 most expensive.

Added to all of this, you have the diverse nature of the state’s population and the fact that it is spread out between various totally different regions (culturally, ethnically, and geographically) split between urban, rural, suburban, and exurban in astounding ways.

One reason that winning the state will be a tough challenge is the nature of reaching traditionally Democratic constituencies, in particular, minorities, in certain regions of the state. While this may be easier in the major cities, it will be tougher in suburban and rural areas. For example, in North, East, and Central Texas, African American and Hispanic voters in rural and suburban counties will be key to winning the state because those individual voters will be key to helping carry precincts, and counties, and–eventually, senate districts–from which delegates are allocated based on primary election day results. Although there are only 16 of the state’s delegates tied up in the four senate districts in East Texas, reaching minority voters in every county in those senate districts will, for one Democratic candidate, be a key factor in winning or losing Texas if the vote is close. In many of these areas, the most effective way to turn out these voters is through personal, door-to-door and Election Day GOTV efforts, which can be costly. Plus, although there are active political organizations in the urban areas in these districts, the rural votes will matter in terms of getting delegates, and what it takes for turning out the African American or Hispanic vote in a small city of 3-5,000 like Gilmer, Wills Point, Emory or dozens of others in these districts is radically different from what it takes in urban areas (or medium sized cities) like Longview, Marshall, Terrell, Tyler, or Paris. Similarly, although there are only nine election-day delegates tied up in three senate districts in the West Texas/Panhandle region, reaching voters in this far-flung region will be important to candidates because, in a narrow race in urban counties, this far-flung, sparsely populated region will be key to possibly getting enough delegates to help push a particular candidate over the top.

Plus, because of Texas’ hybrid delegate selection process for Democrats, you’ll not only have to turn out your voters on election day, but get them to show up at precinct conventions. As explained by the Lone Star Project:

It is almost a maddening process, on the Democratic side.

Plus, for one candidate to truly prevail on March 4 and ensure that the primary race doesn’t continue, they need to win Texas decisively. Otherwise, it’s California all over again where no one secures a decisive victory and millions are spent that end up requiring millions more on top of that for the next set of contests.

To make the March 4 win a decisive one, a Democratic presidential contender will have to focus a significant amount of time–and money–in the Lone Star State.

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