Thursday, May 8, 2008

Thursday Morning Cupcheck - Bring on the Red Wings

By Todd Maternowski

Howdy, hockey fans! Last week we used the forbidden knowledge of the Norstborg 4000 Mindmeld device to get deep inside the head of the average Sharks fan. This week, I was planning on doing my annual column on "Joe Thornton: Great Playoff Performer, or The Greatest Playoff Performer?", when I was sidetracked by a minor detail regarding the Dallas Stars' postseason. Namely, that the Stars are finally ruling while others are limited to drooling.

Of course, the Hockey Philosopher will debate that it's not as simple as that: that the Stars certainly were not ruling 100% of the time, and that the rule-drool paradigm is overly simplistic, since by all scientific measures one team may be actually be ruling, but just appear to be drooling, depending on the exact quantification of ruling their opponent is doing. Or, in the case of some Wild-Avs games, both teams could be simultaneously drooling, while in the Game 6 of the Stars-Sharks, both teams were distinctly ruling. More on that later.

The end result, though, is the same: the Stars are in the Western Conference Finals! A team that was written off by nearly every single hockey pundit in the US and Canada (my hockey-mad counterpart in Mexico, Don Paco, picked the Stars in five. Muy intelligoso, mi compadre!), and made my predictions look Nostradamus-like by comparison. Not to brag or anything, but just try finding a single hockey writer other than myself who's gone 10-2 in playoff series this spring: and had the Rangers not been so embarrassingly dispatched in five, I may be sitting at 11-1 this morning, a Knute Rockne-esque record that is not to be taken lightly.

I'm not your amigo, compadre!

(For you Sharks fans, I was going to calculate the number of centermen in the 6-game Stars-Sharks series that scored more goals than Jumbo Joe, but I think I'll just let you believe he's the most dangerous player in hockey, or whatever. Enjoy your summer, Joe! Try the buffet, and watch the sandtraps on the back nine!)

Now is the time of the playoffs when things get really interesting: the first two rounds of the playoffs are pretty easy to pick, and to get the # of games right is no daunting task. But once you get down to the final four, anything and everything will happen. Flyers sweep the Pens in four as Malkin scores two game-winning auto-goals? Could happen. Zetterberg held off the scoresheet in a seven-game series? It's possible. Turco pitching three shutouts at the Joe? We've seen weirder. Crosby and Marty Biron french kissing behind the Liberty Bell? Been there, done that. Like the NFL playoffs or the March Madness, at this point the "best" teams don't win, it's the teams that work together the most efficiently and try the hardest.

So without further ado, here is the Official 2008 Conference Finals Gameday Breakdown Red Light Special: for those of you who would use this future-seeing information for gambling purposes, just cut out the middle man and write me a check for the full amount of your bank account.

Conference Finals

Western Conference: Detroit Red Wings #1 vs Dallas Stars #5 -- When the playoffs first started, I both dreaded and looked forward to this eventual Conference Final matchup. I knew the Wings would kill the pathetic Preds and the Avs/Flames matchup they would get next; I also knew, and went on record that the Stars would handily dispatch the current Cup Champion Ducks and follow that with the perennial pushover Sharks. Stars fans have been knowing this day would come for an entire decade: since the Wings stole the Cup from the Nieuwendyk-less Stars in 1998, Stars fans have yearned for playoff payback every year since.

We're not your compadres, hombre!

Alas, until now it was not to be. But there's definitely some good mojo for the Stars in this matchup: while the Wings may have gotten all the easy creampuffs in this year's playoffs --which is a Wings specialty-- the Stars have truly been exorcizing their demons in 2008. Getting out of the first round? Check. Defeating the heavily-favored Anaheim Ducks in a mere six games? Check. Defeating the heavily-favored San Jose Sharks in a mere six, and almost a sweep? Check. Clinched two series on home ice? Check. Won a multiple-overtime playoff game? Check.

The demons are falling faster than Lucifer after the Fall for the Stars this season, but as any video game expert will tell you, fate always reserves the Big Bad Boss for the end. The Stars have been Mighty, but the Ducks and Sharks were just chump change compared to the Big Daddy of Stars Mental Demons: beating the Red Wings. Turco shut 'em out earlier this season, but has never once won at the Joe. And for ten years, the Wings have cleaned the Stars' collective clocks nearly every single time they've met.

Hence, the big question remains: can the Stars slay this one final Demon, and perform the nigh-unimaginable feat of reaching the Cup Finals in a Rebuilding Year? This is the equivalent of the Florida Marlins or Tampa Bay Devil Rays reaching the World Series by defeating the Boston Red Sox and Yankees in titanic clashes: well, maybe not the Devil Rays. The Stars are, for once, a young team on the rise: their top two centermen are 27-28, they've got four defensemen under the age of 24 logging important minutes, and a couple of cagey veterans in key spots throughout the lineup to provide experience and leadership to the younguns.

More tellingly, all but five of the Stars were acquired through draft or trade. More on that later.

The Wings, on the other hand, are a team passing in the other direction. They are an old team, full of experienced playoff warriors whose best years are behind them, with some youngish stars to keep the team from dessicating into salted mummies. Lidstrom, Chelios, Draper, Maltby, Osgood, Hasek... these guys peaked a decade ago, and while they're still going strong, it's unlikely that in two years the few remaining fans in Detroit will have much to cheer about. Not to mention that the Wings' core is mostly free agents, though not to the ridiculous extent that the Anaheim Ducks were a bunch of paid mercenaries

I'm not your hombre, amigo!

You can see the difference between these two diametrically-opposed teams in their fans: while the Red Wings have struggled to get butts in seats in easy 4 and 5-goal wins over inferior playoff opponents, the Stars had their fans standing through 6 periods of hockey on Sunday night. Both fan bases may need IVs, but for completely different reasons. .

So, in the Classic Battle of Age versus Youth, Experience versus Drive, Former Champs versus New Blood, I'm picking Stars in seven, with the Wings taking a 3-2 series lead from which Dallas will have to will their way back from. This was the series every true hockey fan wanted --screw that pantywaist Pens-Caps matchup-- and should be a doozy of a series.

Eastern Conference: Pittsburgh Penguins #2 versus Philadelphia Flyers #6 -- The Battle of Pennslyvaniyyaaaaaawwwwwnwnnnnnnnnnnn. Oh, wait, you mean there's going to be an opponent for the Stars following the Wings series? Seriously? Flyers in six, then, but only because I'm contractually obligated to talk about hockey outside of the Western Conference.

So there you have it, and you heard it here first. Tune in next week when I discuss which is a better prop for Game Four: a Broom to humiliate the Wings after they get swept, or a Vacuum to show the Wings how much they suck?

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• Hockey > NHL > Stars

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