Election analysis: Texas House District 101

by Vince Leibowitz of Capitol Annex

Texas House District 101: Robert Miklos (D-Mesquite) v. Mike Anderson (R-Mesquite. Open Seat; LEAN DEMOCRATIC. Although as Mesquite’s second-longest serving mayor, Mike Anderson brings with him to this contest a built-in constituency, we believe this race leans toward Miklos.

For one thing, Anderson was forced to survive a brutal primary against pro-Craddick State Rep. Mike Latham (R-Sunnyvale). Too, the district, like much of Dallas County, is rapidly trending from red to purple to blue in partisan general elections. Miklos, in fact, garnered more votes in the Democratic Primary than Anderson and Latham put together, and the district experienced some of the heaviest GOP primary turnout in Dallas County.

Up in the air, of course, is Anderson’s allegiance to Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick (R-Midland). There is no question Craddick has courted the former Mesquite mayor, and that GOP leadership in the house regards this seat as key to maintaining a GOP majority into the 81st Texas Legislature. However, Anderson hasn’t, to our knowledge, formally stated his position on the continuation of a Craddick Speakership. Nevertheless, Craddick allies like Houston homebuilder Bob Perry have already started to pour their money into Anderson’s campaign, allowing us to draw our own conclusions.

In spite of the fact that the district may seem like a safe bet for Republicans, it is, in fact, no such thing. Anyone who has spent any time in the district at all can see evidence of dramatic shifts in population since 2000 that would tend to favor Democrats. Keep in mind that this is the district that elected Texas’ only Latina Republican (Elvira Reyna) to the Texas House.

WHAT THE DEMOCRAT HAS TO DO TO WIN: Miklos will need money to fund field and mail campaigns. He’s got to get his message to voters, and he has to highlight that he represents change while Anderson simply represents the political establishment. Miklos must have enough money to be able to effectively answer the onslaught of third-party mail that will likely pour into this district since Republicans must hold it in order to hold a majority in the Texas House. Miklos also needs to make sure that he turns out every Democratic primary voter–especially first-time voters who have never participated in the political process.

WHAT WILL TIP IT: A lot of third party money from Bob Perry-supported PACs is likely a given in this race. A lot of money from Craddick’s leadership PAC is a given in this race. How this money is spent could tip the race. If the money is spent in an attempt to slaughter Miklos, it will undoubtedly have a negative effect. If it is entirely positive about Anderson, then Miklos has the opportunity to bring home the point about outside-the-district special interests attempting to influence the race. A good ground game by Miklos will be key. Voter contact and followup will be key for Miklos to make sure he turns out his voters and connects with independent voters and disaffected Republican voters.

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