Election analysis: Texas House District 102

by Vince Leibowitz of Capitol Annex

Texas House District 102: Carol Kent (D-Dallas) v. Tony Goolsby (R-Dallas). TOSS UP (ADVANTAGE D). This is a race that will remain close until election day. Although it is an area of Dallas County that is trending Democratic, the advantages of a 19-year incumbency–including campaign cash–go to Goolsby. However, Kent has significant advantages, including having been before voters in non-partisan elections as a trustee on the Richardson ISD Board of Trustees, and a nice balance in her campaign account, although Goolsby continues to maintain a decent cash-on-hand advantage.

As the Dallas Morning News noted in its editorial endorsement of her candidacy, one thing Kent has on her side is that she represents “change” and that Goolsby represents the political establishment.

It is to Kent’s advantage that Harriet Miller held Goolsby to under 52 percent in 2006. While this bodes well for Kent, the fact that the GOP PACs have already shown they’ll spend whatever it takes to keep Goolsby in power is worrisome, but we believe the advantage still belongs to Kent, and believe this race will become “LEAN DEMOCRATIC” closer to election day.

WHAT THE DEMOCRAT HAS TO DO TO WIN: Kent has to hold Goolsby accountable for a 19-year record of little accomplished for his district. To do that, she’ll need significant financial resources, a good mail program, and an excellent field program. Too, Kent has to capatilize on the theme of “change” that is prevelant this election cycle and turn that to her advantage.

WHAT WILL TIP IT: Money will tip this race. If too much third-party cash comes to Goolsby’s aid, expect a nail-biter finish that will truly be a toss up. However, if the district sees a significant surge in the presidential election and that surge favors Obama, it will help Kent and could retire Goolsby.