Election analysis: Texas House District 112

by Vince Leibowitz of of Capitol Annex

Texas House District 112: Sandra Phuong VuLe (D-Garland) v. Angie Chen Button (R-Garland); open seat; LEAN DEMOCRATIC. Capitol Annex’s rating of “LEAN DEMOCRATIC” for this race may be the only rating at this point that lists the district as such at this point, but we have our reasons.

Two months ago, we would have called this race a “toss up” and given a slight advantage to Chen Button. However, we believe that VuLe has a major opportunity to use the current economic crisis and Chen Button’s baggage as a member of the Dallas Area Rapid Transit Board’s Audit Committee to her advantage in different ways than was possible earlier this summer. Chen Button was on the DART Audit Committee while the agency went $900 million over budget and her only explanation was, “something happened.” In the current climate–both nationally with emotions high on the $700 billion bailout and in Dallas with teachers being laid off because the Dallas Independent School District has had massive budget problems–VuLe has an unmissable opportunity to attack Chen Button and leave her gutted on the side of the road.

Too, some of Button’s proposals, such as electing appraisal district boards, would cost local governments millions upon millions of dollars–something that, if VuLe highlights it properly–can easily cast a pall over Button. In addition, we already know she is a stealth supporter of school vouchers (James Leininger withdrew his support from her opponent in the GOP primary). That’s yet another thing VuLe can use to her advantage.

In addition, this is an open seat. While it has been Republican for a long time, it hasn’t been completely awful territory for Democrats. In 2006, Dallas County Democratic candidates polled in the high 30s and 40s in the district, and Hill himself was held to under 78 percent of the vote by a Libertarian candidate.

WHAT THE DEMOCRAT MUST DO TO WIN: VuLe has to raise major bucks to be able to not only get out her message but to attack Chen Button. In this race, a slash-and-burn strategy designed to leave Chen Button looking like a misspending incompetent is totally called for. In fact, it is 100 percent necessary. If done right, it could easily capture the district, and we say this in spite of 2006 numbers because this is an election year unlike we’ve ever seen–at all levels. Too, VuLe has to hope for a strong anti-Republican turnout on election day that would favor Obama and favor her as well. VuLe is the more articulate of the candidates and should have no problem convincing voters that she’s better for the job–just so long as she has the funding necessary to get her message to the people.

WHAT WILL TIP IT: The money to mount a massive negative campaign against Chen Button will tip the race for Democrats. Even without money, sending blockwalkers into neighborhoods with inexpensive xeroxed fliers that are well-designed and tout Chen Button’s baggage could help do the trick. What will tip the race for Chen Button is a large anti-Obama turnout among Republican voters on election day.

UNIQUE & NOTABLE: This is the only race in Texas–and possibly the only race in the nation–where two female candidates who are not native born Americans are vying for a legislative seat. We fully expect this race to gain some national media attention as a result of this, and believe VuLe could use that to her financial advantage.

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