Thursday Morning Cupcheck - Go West, Old Men

by Todd Maternowski

Hola, hockey fans! Last week we chewed on the Eastern Conference and its pathetic teams: this week, I was planning on postponing the inevitable Western Conference preseason picks in favor of an in-depth column on why the Democrats need to pick Gary Bettman's mom to one-up the GOP: but as any number of terrified Cambodian twins can tell you, I'm a slave to symmetry. But fret not, loyal readers: Gary Bettman's mom will once again grace the ink-stained pages of this column, whether she lets me hold the camera next time or not. So without further ado, here's my failsafe predictions on the Western Conference, the very same picks that earned me untold piles of prediction-related treasure and fashionably-unclad women last season.

Western Conference

Central Division

Detroit Red Wings -- Many teams in the NHL worry about scraping together a decent-enough season to make the final playoff spot: this is the team that worries about having ten NHL-caliber defensemen on the roster and too many amazing potential forward line combinations to name. Still, as the smallest and weakest of all the NHL teams (and just coming off an additional 20 or so games in the postseason), a second straight Cup is probably out of the question, although yet another ho-hum President's Trophy may as well be awarded now. Adding Mats Sundin sometime around Groundhog Day will complete the ridiculously amazing statistical season for these Wings, as well as ensure a guaranteed first-round playoff loss in the spring.

My Prediction: 1st place, 120 points

What Will Actually Happen: 1st place, 107 points

Nashville Predators -- As annoying as this team is, the Preds have pretty much returned the exact same team to the ice as last year --minus the commie traitor, er, capitalist pigdog Radulov-- and in a division where every non-Detroit team took a massive step backwards this offseason, just staying within a few points of last season will probably mean another #7 or #8 playoff spot and another pathetic no-show in the first round. Stars fans can only hope that they can win their division and snag a matchup against these postseason patsies come springtime --it's the NHL's equivalent of a first-round bye.

My Prediction: 2nd place, 90 points

What Will Actually Happen: 3rd place, 86 points

Chicago Blackhawks -- My beloved Blackhawks are the sexy pick this year among nearly all national hockey pundits, which inevitably means that they have no chance whatsoever. And looking at their disastrous offseason of overpaid, underwhelming signings, I'm a little wary of ranking them this high. That is, until I open my tightly-clinched eyelids and glance casually at the two teams below them: ahhh... it's good to be in the Central. With plenty of scoring pop and very little defensive acumen, look for this team to be the Toronto Maple Leafs of the West, complete with unreasonably angry fanbases and frustrated hockey columnists penning endless articles on 'What Happened to the Blackhawks This Season, For Chrissakes?'

My Prediction: 3rd place, 89 points

What Will Actually Happen: 2nd place, 92 points

St. Louis Blues -- As formerly-great, often-fired coach Pat Burns once said (more or less), "When you're winning, hockey is 95% goaltending. When you're losing, it's 100%". With some reliable goaltending in the pipes for the Blues for the first time in many generations, this otherwise-mediocre team will prove to be a tough out for most teams on most nights. However, without Mayers in the fold, this team will be noticeably softer, older, and slower. Blues fans can crow about Boyes' 43 goals all they want, but he can't outscore teams by himself every night --this isn't the Southeast Division. Watching the Blues on Versus this season should provide the casual hockey fan with all the Contract the NHL fodder they'll ever need.

My Prediction: 4th place, 75 points

What Will Actually Happen: 4th place, 82 points

Columbus Blue Jackets -- As great a coach as he is, Ken Hitchcock is a marked man this season, as the only real excitement from this slow-moving trainwreck of a team will be to see how long Hitch lasts before getting canned. Signing the mummified remains of Mike Commodore to a massive contract is a apocalyptic omen for any professional sports team: having Umberger as your #1 center is, well.... this is a Family Column, and I promised The Catholic League I wouldn't use the F-word after our feisty spanking session last night (I should've picked an easier safety word than 'Onanism': try screaming that seven times through a incense-flavored ballgag). The pressing question: who is desperate enough to coach this team after Hitch decides to leave to spend more time with his family --and how embarrassing is it that Hitch's family can outscore the Blue Jackets in direct head-to-head competition?

My Prediction: 5th place, 68 points

What Will Actually Happen: 5th place, 71 points

Northwest Division

Calgary Flames -- The Northwest is annually the biggest free-for-all dogpile of similarly-performing teams year in and year out: this year will finally be the season that one team stands tall and wins the division by more than half-a-point in the standings. The Flames signed all their guys they needed to, while losing dead weight like Huselius and Nolan to soon-to-be bottom feeder teams. Adding Bertuzzi, as furious as Big Todd has made fantasy hockey owners over the past half-decade, might actually prove to be a worthwhile risk this season. The only thing holding this team back will be fossilized coach Mike Keenan, who continues to wear briefs made of a wet paper bag he donned in 1998 as part of an ill-advised bet.

My Prediction: 1st place, 102 points

What Will Actually Happen: 2nd place, 96 points

Minnesota Wild -- This team, an abomination before the hockey gods, seems to have sold its soul for its annual wasted chance in the postseason, and this year will be no different. This team cast off plenty of key pieces like Demitra and either went older (Brunette, Nolan) or softer (Miettinen). Still, employing the time-honored technique of lining five guys up in front of your own net, also known as The Luongo Strategy, will ensure that the Wild once again put up enough points from shootout losses and Central Division teams to squeak into the postseason, where their unwatchable brand of schlockey will make easy pickings for some team that actually tries to win games.

My Prediction: 2nd place, 96 points

What Will Actually Happen: 1st place, 98 points

Colorado Avalanche -- This entire offseason has centered around The One Question: how will Colorado make the playoffs without Jeff Finger?? Without Finger --as well as actually-good players Sauer and Brunette-- this team just gets older and less interesting every passing year. And with an entire season of ancient men Foote, Tucker, Sakic and Raycroft (not technically ancient, but he does have the lateral mobility of the Old Man of Crete), this could finally be the year that the Avs drop out of the Annual Northwest Divisional Orgy, having lost their invitation in a pile of Reader's Digests and slightly-used adult diapers.

My Prediction: 3rd place, 88 points

What Will Actually Happen: 3rd place, 94 points

Vancouver Canucks -- For those of you who, like myself, claim to enjoy 0-0 goaliefests, prepare to have your optic nerves demolished by the sheer ugliness of a half-dozen Canucks-Wild matchups this season. Losing Naslund and Morrison --the only two non-Swedish twins to steadfastly refuse to stand in front of their own nets covering their genitals-- many are predicting that the Canucks will be one of the worst teams in the NHL next season. However, considering the team never really relied on scoring to get their shootout loss-inflated point totals, I don't expect this team to suck all that much harder than last season. Expect no scoring-games, and the ever-frequent sight of opposing skaters/fans taking their own lives out of soul-crushing boredom.

My Prediction: 4th place, 80 points

What Will Actually Happen: 5th place, 75 points

Edmonton Oilers -- This is a team on the rise, eventually. This young squad will likely improve on last year's somewhat-decent performance, although it will be a far cry from a playoff spot like many pundits are predicting. Still, a young team with little or no defense and crappy goaltending won't get far against the toughest conference in hockey, so don't expect too much from this team that relied exclusively on shootout wins to pad its still-low point totals in the standings. Next year, maybe this team will squeak into the postseason, provided they can groom some young d-men to pick up Pronger's hefty slack. Until then, Oilers fans will continue to get stomped by teams like the Stars, Sharks and (gulp!) Ducks, experienced teams that can withstand youthful aggression and counterattack with their superior defenses.

My Prediction: 5th place, 78 points

What Will Actually Happen: 4th place, 86 points

Pacific Division

Dallas Stars -- Returning the exact same team as last year, with one major addition (Avery) and two minor defections (Hagman and Miettinen) --along with a full season of the suddenly-forgotten-by-hockey-media Brad Richards-- and this team should be one of two teams to give Detroit a run for the President's Trophy. The real question for this team will not be the glory boy forwards, but the development of sophomore d-men Niskanen, Fistric and Grossman: if the Trio of Terror can continue to improve on their impressive rookie seasons, a neck-and-neck race with the Red Wings will provide Stars fans with plenty of regular-season entertainment. If the three younguns regress in their second seasons, the team will be fighting a three-way battle for the divisional title. In either case, the Pacific should be the most entertaining in hockey by a long shot.

My Prediction: 1st place, 114 points

What Will Actually Happen: 2nd place, 105 points

San Jose Sharks -- As flashy as Blake and Boyle are, they represent a significant downgrade at San Jose's strongest position from last year: Actual Defense. Throw in a gotta-be-tired Nabokov, no Wilson and the return of Error-Hoff, and the Sharks will be a significantly different team to the one that cruised to a divisional title last season. New head coach Todd McLellan remains the biggest wild card (and yes, I'm including Marleau in that sweeping assertion), as it will remain to be seen whether McLellan contributed, or merely benefited, from those years in the tight-knit Red Wings organization. My guess-- team struggles early on, then picks up steam in the second half of the season before bowing out once again in the second round of the playoffs.

My Prediction: 2nd place, 108 points

What Will Actually Happen: 1st place, 109 points

Anaheim Ducks -- Ah, the classic battle of Experience versus Just Being Old, Rust versus Dust, Ogres versus Mummies: replacing Weight and Bertuzzi with Selanne and Niedermayer should be an improvement, but as you're talking about replacing one graybeard with another, it may just indicate another frustrating season for all ten Ducks fans. Still, this is a tough team, although if the NHL actually goes through with any goaltender equipment reductions, you can completely write off Giguere as an effective stopper this season. Look for plenty of injuries to key players at inopportune times, and another undisciplined first-round playoff exit at the hands of a much younger and more talented team.

My Prediction: 3rd place, 97 points

What Will Actually Happen: 3rd place, 104 points

Phoenix Coyotes -- Losing Ballard and Boynton --and gaining Jokinen-- is probably the biggest step backward of any team not named the Pittsburgh or Tampa this season. Jokinen is a one-sided player with questionable leadership skills, while Boynton and Ballard are mostly-dependable defensemen and great teammates with plenty of upside. Could this finally be Frustrated Gretzky's final go at coaching before retiring to a pleasant life of product endorsements and relaxing winters in Fiji? Smart money says 'ANSWER UNCLEAR: ASK AGAIN'

My Prediction: 4th place, 79 points

What Will Actually Happen: 5th place, 76 points

Los Angeles Kings -- Simply by getting rid of Blake and Nagy, this became a much-improved team. However, despite a prospect system annually ranked as one of the best in the NHL, the Kings' perennial youth movements always seem to fall disastrously short. Still, as a fan of another team in the same division, I heartily applaud the Kings' management for building a team that will dominate one or two of the half-dozen divisional matchups, and predictably crash and burn in the rest.

My Prediction: 5th place, 75 points

What Will Actually Happen: 4th place, 88 points

Well, that's it for this week's Boston Marathon of Hockey Columns. Tune in next week when I profile the Stars' new assistant coach Alexei Yashin, and ask him how he defines the term "grit": his untranslatable profanity-laced tirade may surprise you.

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