Thursday, March 19, 2009

Thursday Morning Cupcheck - Stanley Cup Playoffs, Near and Far

By Todd Maternowski

Hola, hockey amigos! Last week we were given a glance into Mike Modano's personal life: this week, I was planning on writing a Tale of the Tape: Mike "Unrealized Potential" Modano versus Steve "Hot Pot" Ott, but recent events in this titanic season have forced my pen elsewhere.

Here's hoping the Dallas Stars' ever-dwindling chances of salvaging this season haven't gotten you too down: the fact that this season seems to be an exact mirror image of the disastrous 2001-02 season, in which injuries and Eddie Belfour's abysmal play torpedoed a season, a coach, and the pre-lockout Stanley Cup hopes of an entire season. That season they finished tenth, just four points out of the final playoff spot, with winning records against the best teams in hockey and surprisingly-pathetic losing records against the league's mediocre clubs.

He-hey Edd--HEY!! EDDIE!! The puck's over THER--ahhh, crap.

Sound familiar? It should, because as any French military buff will tell you, History Repeats itself. It would be tempting to look back and write off the season before it even began, when over half the clueless pundits at Sports Illustrated picked the Stars to win it all --always the mark of death in any sport-- but frankly, things do look bright for the future.

For one, it seems unlikely that one season will force Tom Hicks to overreact and can Tippett, who I've grudgingly come around to realizing is actually a pretty good coach. Sure, some of his coaching decisions infuriate me to no end --protecting one-goal leads for 40 minutes? Really?-- but he's been handed a roster of malcontents, AHLers and Moises Alou clones and still has the team within striking distance of the playoffs. And this, despite the worst year in Stars goaltending since Belfour's billion-dollar meltdown in 2001-02.

Given a year's worth of Morrow, Zubov, Lehtinen, Richards, Ott, Pederson, Wilson, Sydor, who's to say this team wouldn't be right in the thick of things as the #4 or #5 seed? Can you look at the seven guys off this roster and say they wouldn't have been worth an extra nine points in the standings (the difference between the Stars and Canucks)?

This was painfully obvious to anyone watching the recent Stars-Canucks tilt: the hopelessly overmatched Stars were running around chasing the puck all night, as the swift-skatin' Swedes tic-tac-toed their way to a 4-2 win. But other than when they were on the powerplay (is there a team in the NHL with a worse collection of pointmen? Modano? Niskanen? Robidas? That's seriously what we're rolling out every night?)(Oh, I'd forgotten about Minnesota, forget my unjustified whining), this Stars team looked competitive against the hottest team in the NHL, if not in talent then in terms of sheer will and fight. I credit Tippett and Stars MVP Steve Ott for that.

Can the Stars crank it up in these last eleven?

And all this while giving huge minutes (coincidentally, also the name of my favorite hockey-themed adult film, a gripping story about a fourth-liner trying to make it big) to young guys like Neal, Brunnstrom, Fistric, Grossman, Niskanen, and Eriksson. That's basically the future core of this team, making plays and bone-headed decisions every night, but getting noticeably better and more promising for the future. Which is good, because it's unlikely Zubov, Modano or Lehtinen will ever play another full season with this club at their advanced ages.

In that Waterloo-esque 2001-02 campaign, the core of the Stars was not nearly as strong as it is now. Although players like Turco and Morrow were just coming into their roles, that year was more notable for the players the Stars lost (Verbeek, Belfour, Nieuwendyk, Langenbrunner) than core pieces of the future. And they turned it around quickly, winning the Pacific Division titles in two of the next three years (and coming in second the other time).

Is it too late for the Stars to tank it for Tavares?

Huh?

No?

Just kidding. That's the most moronic strategy ever devised. Although the Rockets and Spurs might disagree with me on that one.

So what can we make of the last eleven games of the season? The Stars have their work cut out for them: six home games against five teams below them in the standings, and five road games against four playoff-bound teams. In other words, Stars fans are perfectly set up for frustrating failure: this season's M.O. has been to beat the good teams on the road, and lose to the NHL's troglodytes on home ice, thereby giving fans a taste of the good life but ultimately crushing their hopes flatter than Paris Hilton's concave implants.

As for me, I'm not quite ready to check out on this team yet, like I have with major league baseball and the Flat Earth Theory. The other teams around them --Oilers, Preds, Wild, Blues and Ducks-- all seem equally pathetic, and none of these six teams is playing like they want to face the Sharks/Red Wings in the first round. Ideally, it'd be nice to slot into that sweet #6 spot to face the vastly overrated Flames (never again should anyone pick a Mike Keenan team to win a single playoff round, especially with grizzled postseason warrior Ollie Jokinen on the team). But should the Stars squeak in due to some other team's issues and face the Sharks or Wings, I'd consider this season to be a tremendous success: the Stars have shown that, even down 4-6 key players, they can still beat, and sometimes dominate, the top two teams in the West. (And then getting knocked out in five by some eternally-grateful four-seed immediately afterwards) It's just a matter of getting to the Big Dance in the first place.

Whether they make it or not, this team's got some serious questions to face in the off-season, the biggest being whether to keep or dump Turco: Stars fans may recall Belfour giving up goals left and right in that abortion of a 2001-02 season, but the team as a whole gave up 213 goals over 82 games: the team has already given up 217 goals this year over 71 games. Of course, seven years ago this team had a capable backup goaltender that kept that number significantly lower than it could have been, posting a ridiculous 15-6-2 record with a 2.09 GAA, numbers which single-handedly kept the Stars from sinking to the bottom of the Conference and providing a solid reason to kick Inconsistent Eddie to the proverbial curb.

You can always take History Repeating Itself to the bank: Tobias Stephane will post a 1.72 GAA next season as the full-time replacement for Marty, who will be struggling as third-string netminder in the Slovakian Hockey League this time next season.

That's it for this week's Cupcheck: tune in next week when Sergei Zubov appears to me in a dream, floating aloft over clouds of mist to show the Stars powerplay "quarterbacks" how to hold in a keep at the line. Ahhh.... please don't wake me up...

Related stories

• Thursday Morning Cupcheck - Happy Hockey with Paco Muy Gusto (April 2, 2009)
• Thursday Morning Cupcheck - Give Me Your Sick and Infirm (March 26, 2009)
• Pegasus News week in view: One simple rule edition (March 19, 2009)

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• Hockey > NHL > Stars