Thursday, September 3, 2009
Thursday Morning Cupcheck — Epic Fail in the Eastern Conference
Greetings, anxious and nervous hockey fans! Last week we boldly predicted a 6th place finish for your Dallas Stars; this week, we'll tackle the Eastern Conference as roughly and aggressively as your mom tackled Larry Czonka in the 1973 Pro Bowl.
As a voracious Texan, I'll openly admit that my West Coast Bias will play a large part in these predictions --wait, Philadelphia still has a team?!? When did this happen?? But with the twin powers of Sweeping Generalization and Made-Up Bull$%#t, we should be able to deftly navigate through these mysterious and anonymous waters.
Pictured: your typical East Coast elite
100% Accurate Eastern Conference Standings for 2009-2010
**Atlantic Division**
New Jersey Devils
Key Additions: Brendan Shanahan
Key Subtractions: Youth, verve, healthy knees
Core Players Average Age: 33.1
Flawless analysis: The Devils return pretty much the exact same team as the one that rope-a-doped the Atlantic last season, except that everyone is one year older, wiser, and slower. Oh, and they lost their vastly overrated backup goaltender, but not to worry: Teams that rely heavily on aging, athletic goalies in their 30s with no backup goalie are doomed to Unhoped-For Success. My Prediction: 1st Place, 104 points, and a first-round flameout at the hands of a far more energetic team.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Key Additions: Jay McKee, Bill Guerin, Craig Adams, Brent Johnson
Key Subtractions: The ability to clear the crease
Core Players Average Age: 24.8
Flawless Analysis: Losing Hal Gill and Rob Scuderi to free agent holla dolla$ is like taking a shot to where the sun don't shine: the crease (a.k.a., the Groin Area of the Rink). A bunch of young, fast studs trying to score is great and all, but it will just be a repeat of every Texas Rangers season ever. When are hockey coaches going to understand that you can't win without great pitching? My Prediction: 2nd place, 102 points, and a couple of seven-games series against vastly less-talented teams before meeting their match in the conference finals.
Philadelphia Flyers
Key Additions: Chris Pronger, Ray Emery, Ian LaPerriere
Key Subtractions: Dignity, humanity, love of fellow man
Core Players Average Age: 28.1
Flawless Analysis: Adding Ol' Iron Elbows was the single biggest move in the Eastern Conference, and also the most vastly overrated. How quickly we forget that the Flyers pulled this exact same move, minus a few million dollars, with Derian Hatcher a half-decade ago, with similarly amazing results. But with Pronger and Emery and the boys, this is easily the most entertaining team to watch in the entire NHL. My Prediction: 3rd place, 99 points, and a Bonds-like shattering of the record for player suspensions in a single season.
"Hi. I'm Chris Pronger, and I would like to take a moment of your time to talk about face insurance."
New York Rangers
Key Additions: Chris Higgins, Donald Brashear, Marian Gaborik, Enver Lisin
Key Subtractions: Health, consistency, plus/minus
Core Players Average Age: 28
Flawless Analysis: You can't go wrong with the adding the Holy Fourumverate of Salary Dump, Guy Your Fans Hate, Guy Who Smells of Groin Injuries and Worst Forward in NHL. The Rangers apparently like having the hardest working goalie in hockey, because they keep giving him more chances to show off his point-blank breakaway save technique. My Prediction: 4th place, 88 points, and a contract extension for Glen Sather after his team once again fails to overwhelm.
New York Islanders
Key Additions: Dwayne Roloson, Martin Biron, John Tavares
Key Subtractions: Confidence between the pipes
Core Players Average Age: 30.2
Flawless Analysis: Wait, aren't you mean you're neither rebuilding nor any good? Kansas City, here we come! My Prediction: 5th place, 63 points, and a whole lotta goalie goin' on.
**Northeast Division**
Key Additions: Scott Gomez, Mike Cammalleri, Brian Gionta, Jaroslav Spacek, Hal Gill, Travis Moen, Paul Mara
Key Subtractions: Locker room cohesiveness, heft
Core Players Average Age: 29.2
Flawless Analysis: You've got to have Maginot Line-sized balls to replace a roster of five All-Star Game starters with five new guys, but the Canadiens did it. Bravo, Gainey: Your vast array of undersized playmaking forwards will have no one to crash the crease, and your aging, molasses-esque defense will remain safely parked in front of their own goalie, even on power plays. But this weird combo should work well in the regular season just fine, especially in the second-weakest division in hockey. My Prediction: 1st place, 96 points, and a first-round sweep at the hands of someone who actually has a power forward somewhere on their roster.
Boston Bruins
Key Additions: Mark Recchi, Derek Morris
Key Subtractions: Skating and defensive ability
Core Players Average Age: 28.5
Flawless Analysis: Having all of your guys post career years in the regular season, then wildly disappoint in the playoffs is usually a bad sign for things to come. The core of this team is still young, regardless of whether Kessel will re-sign, and young teams generally have the consistency of a Chinese rollercoaster from the 70s. My Prediction: 2nd place, 94 points, and a host of local newfound interest in the Patriots and Celtics.
Buffalo Sabres
Key Additions: Mike Grier, Steve Montador
Key Subtractions: Any ability or desire to build excitement in the off-season
Core Players Average Age: 29.9
Flawless Analysis: This team continues to impress with it's anti-free agent, team-cohesiveness-first attitude in the offseason, and someday, that plan will pay off with another unlikely Cup run. A slow start out of the gate will prevent that from happening this year, however. My Prediction: 3rd place, 88 points, and a few less grains of sand in Lindy Ruff's coaching hourglass.
The Montreal Canadiens' starting five are truly awe-inspiring.
Ottawa Senators
Key Additions: Alexei Kovalev
Key Subtractions: Offensive consistency, defensive responsibility
Core Players Average Age: 30.5
Flawless Prediction: Adding Kovalev, subtracting Jason Smith, and keeping Dany Heatley can only mean one thing: roughly the same amount of offensive firepower and a metric ton of new rubber flying between the pipes. Ottawa does have one thing going for it, though: They're in the same division as Toronto. My Prediction: 4th place, 82 points, and a season's worth of Flyers-level telenovela drama. ("Pero Dany!! Yo quieres la responsibilidad en la zona defensiva! Y donde esta su biblioteca!!")
Key Additions: Mike Komisarek, Colton Orr, Francois Beauchemin, Jonas Gustavsson
Key Subtractions: Any understanding of the words "underrated" or "hidden gem"
Core Players Average Age: 29.5
Flawless Analysis: The New York Yankees of Hockey continue their March of Mediocrity, even with a "bold" new GM. By my calculations, the Yankees have spent over $1 billion in player salaries since their last World Series win, and the Maple Leafs would gladly have spent twice that for half the results had they not been forced to live with the cap. And using their top-ten draft pick on a guy with a big neon sign saying "Poster Boy For Draft Busts" shouldn't hurt too much in the long run -- Toronto should get plenty of top-five draft picks in the upcoming decade to make up for it. My Prediction: 5th place, 76 points, and yet another season of Maple Leafs fans suspecting the team is tanking for draft position by mid-January.
**Southeast Division**
Washington Capitals
Key Additions: Mike Knuble, Brendan Morrison
Key Subtractions: Finally got that pesky Crushing Playoff Series Loss out of the way
Core Players Average Age: 28
Flawless Analysis: A wildly enjoyable-to-watch, aggressive team with stellar young netminding and a chip on its shoulder from a crushingly disappointing playoff loss? Pencil these guys in for next year's Stanley Cup Finals ... provided their season isn't cut short with a swath of freak injuries, a la the 2008-09 Dallas Stars. You jinxed it here first! My Prediction: 1st place, 110 points, and the time-honored ritual of the Passing of the Bandwagon from it's previous owners, the 2008-09 Chicago Blackhawks.
Carolina Hurricanes
Key Additions: Erik Cole, Chad LaRose, Jussi Jokinen, Stephane Yelle
Key Subtractions: Any danger of missing the playoffs in this pathetic division
Core Players Average Age: 30.3
Yay! The Maple Leafs' team bus is here! Or is that the Lightnings?
Flawless Analysis: Who cares if these guys keep getting older and slower with the passing years? They re-signed their key guys, picked up some underrated vets and play in the Southleast Division. The regular season is a formality, an 82-game holding period before the real fun starts. The over-under on Versus mentions of LaRose, Jokinen or Yelle during the regular season? Try "zero." My Prediction: 2nd place, 93 points, and another "out of nowhere" deep playoff run over vastly superior-on-paper opponents.
Atlanta Thrashers
Key Additions: Nik Antropov, Josh Gratton
Key Subtractions: You can't squeeze blood from a stone
Core Players Average Age: 29
Flawless Analysis: Call it a hunch, but with a new and unpredictable crop of younguns and a weak divisional schedule, this team might actually rise up a single spot in the Southeast standings. Plus, they've got a pretty decent coach, and a mid-season trade of the Steve Nash of Hockey, Ilya Kovalchuk, should do wonders for this team's ability to actually win games. My Prediction: 3rd place, 84 points, with most of that coming after Kovalchuk is traded to some sucker that still thinks scoring 40 goals a years is somehow more impressive than allowing 80.
Florida Panthers
Key Additions: Jordan Leopold, David Booth, Scott Clemmensen, Radek Dvorak
Key Subtractions: Any and all ability to stop a puck from entering their net
Core Players Average Age: 27.3
Flawless Analysis: While the loss of Jay-Bo will hurt, the loss of K-Skras and Nick-Boyt will be felt even more. And no backup goaltender playing on a trapping team will help matters down in the swamps of Florida. My Prediction: 4th place, 78 points, and a quiet, dignified end for the franchise as Gary Bettman takes the Panthers organization to an unmarked fetid pool in the Everglades and puts them out of their misery with a swift shovel strike to the back of the head.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Key Additions: Mattias Ohlund, Victor Hedman, Antero Nittymaki, Todd Fedoruk, Alex Tanguay
Key Subtractions: Unrealistic Cup Victory expectations caused by the vision of Head Coach Barry Melrose
Core Players Average Age: 27.5
Flawless Prediction: The Detroit Lions of the NHL will continue to impress fantasy hockey owners with their first line while horrifying actual fans with their entire actual team. If Tom Hicks can find an arcane NHL by-law that allows for Indian-giving, expect the Bolts' lone amazing player under-34, Mike Smith to find his way back to the welcoming arms of the Dallas Stars. My Prediction: 5th place, 73 points, most of that coming in the final two months as Smith and Hedman and absolutely no one else combine to play playoff spoilers for the actual "teams" scattered sporadically throughout the East.
Well, that's it for this week's startlingly-accurate Cupcheck. Tune in next week, when guest analysts Shabba Do, Ozone, and Turbo break down the Western Conference using the time-honored medium of rec center-saving dance.
