Thursday Morning Cupcheck - Circling the Drain in the Pacific

by Todd Maternowski

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The Stars might miss this division this time next season.

Good morning, hockey fans! Last week we got our scalpel and flashlight and went deep inside the mind of Brendan Shanahan. This week, with more than a third of the season already in the record books, it's time to pants each team in the once-awesome Pacific Division and see exactly what they're working with.

Each team will be rigorously graded using science. If you disagree with any of the findings presented here, you disagree with science and cannot be taken seriously.

#1. Dallas Stars

2011 Record So Far: 17-11-1, 35 points

2011-12 Payroll: $51.7 million

How Wrong Were the Experts?: 5 McGuires

Offseason Grade: 4 Milburys

Hilarity Score: 4 Boudreaus

What Went Right: Brad Richards left. While 90% of the hockey world pointed at GM Joe Nieuwendyk and cackled, he was busy putting together a competitive roster with the $8 million/season not having Richards freed up. Free agent reclamation projects such as Sheldon Souray and Eric Nystrom have paid off handsomely, while other depth signings like Michael Ryder, Radek Dvorak, and Vernon Fiddler have given the Stars three scoring lines every night. Easily the most important (and most overlooked) signing was new head coach Glen Gulutzan, who has this team of castoffs and ne'er-do-wells atop what was once the most competitive division in hockey.

What Went So, So Wrong: Other than injuries to key players like Kari Lehtonen, Steve Ott, Brenden Morrow, and Alex Goligoski, very little. The team has gone 4-2-0 without Lehtonen -- whom many criticized as the sole reason the Stars were able to win so many games early on -- with all those wins in regulation. The team allows too many shots, mostly from the perimeter, which artificially lowers their CORSI score, not that anyone pays attention to that. But really, the biggest problem on this Stars team has been their backup goaltending, specifically Andrew Raycroft, who has disappointed with a Raycroft-esque 2-7-0 record. The rise of rookie Richard Bachman has made Stars fans momentarily forget that, however.

What To Expect: More of the same. Tight, one-goal contests, punctuated by the occasional blowout loss. If they're able to benefit from the chaos in the division, they should finish second behind the Sharks.

#2. San Jose Sharks

2011 Record So Far: 15-10-3, 33 points

2011-12 Payroll: $62.4 million

How Wrong Were the Experts?: 2 McGuires

Offseason Grade: 1 Milburys

Hilarity Score: 3 Boudreaus

What Went Right: For a team that many, again, picked to win it all, the Sharks have been completely underwhelming. Behind Joe Pavelski and Logan Couture, the rest of the team is not doing badly, per se, but they aren't lighting the world on fire either. Their +10 goal differential is tops in the division, but only fifth in the Western Conference.

What Went So, So Wrong: The multiple blockbuster trades to Minnesota were questionable at best when they happened, and now the Sharks are reaping the results. Havlat has been largely invisible, while Burns is exactly who Wild fans said he was: a streaky, overrated offensive d-man with occasional coverage problems. And it's never a good sign when Brad Winchester is playing on your top line, or in your top grouping in the shootout, for that matter.

What To Expect: Treading water this early in the season is never cause for alarm. They're probably just waiting for March and April to start peaking. Expect yet another ho-hum divisional crown when all is said and done.

#3. Phoenix Coyotes

2011 Record So Far: 15-12-3, 33 points

2011-12 Payroll: $53.3 million

How Wrong Were the Experts?: 5 McGuires

Offseason Grade: 4 Milburys

Hilarity Score: 2 Boudreaus

What Went Right: Like their division rivals in Dallas, nearly every hockey expert in the universe looked at what someone else was willing to pay for Richards/Bryzgalov, saw that no big names went the other way and instantly wrote the Stars/Coyotes off for dead, as if professional sports teams were as simple as EA Sports teams. As at least one expert predicted, however, the Coyotes are doing what they have always done under head coach Dave Tippett: Play maddeningly boring hockey that results in the steady accumulation of points. Mike Smith, easily one of the biggest "downgrades" of the summer, has posted superior numbers to the guy he replaced, and the rest of the lineup, particularly the surprisingly clutch Radim Vrbata, has put enough points on the board to win every other night.

What Went So, So Wrong: Tippett's teams run the trap-and-score-on-the-powerplay formula into the ground, but their powerplay this season has been atrocious. Only the St. Louis Blues are worse (a Hitchcock team, hmm, imagine that), with 2010-11's Most Overrated Defenseman Winner Keith Yandle (zero goals, five PP assists in 30 games) as the primary culprit. Tippett teams rely heavily on defensemen scoring to stay competitive, and the fact that they can't even get point shots on net has led to their recent 2-5 slide.

What To Expect: The powerplay should improve at some point, while Smith continues to defy expectations and the Coyotes' Snoozepuck style gets them enough points to squeak into one of the final two playoff spots.

#4. Los Angeles Kings

2011 Record So Far: 13-13-4, 30 points

2011-12 Payroll: $63.5 million

How Wrong Were the Experts?: 5 McGuires

Offseason Grade: 2 Milburys

Hilarity Score: 5 Boudreaus

What Went Right: Defensively, this team is amazing. Jonathan Quick is easily one of the top five goaltenders in the NHL, while the team is fifth in the conference in fewest goals allowed. Anze Kopitar, despite his streakiness, still has a more-than-respectable 28 points in 30 games, and new addition Mike Richards has made the Kings' penalty kill unit one of the most dangerous in the league, to say nothing of the boost to their faceoff dominance.

What Went So, So Wrong: Practically everything else. Dead last in the league in goals per game, the Kings' five-on-five offensive play is completely nonexistent. Their highest paid player, Drew Doughty -- claimed by at least one hockey writer as an overrated sack of s^&# -- is having a miserable season at both ends of the ice, failing to get pucks on net, make passes out of his own zone and keep pucks in along the wall during powerplays ... not to mention almost always being on the ice for the Nightly Soul-Crushing Goal. Dustin Brown continues to be the league's biggest punk, and Dustin Penner the league's biggest punchline. Changing coaches might shake things up, but ultimately the buck stops at GM Dean Lombardi, who assembled (and pissed off) this team of underachieving malcontents, Stanley Cup contenders on paper and lethargic slackers on the ice.

What To Expect: Everything rises and falls on leadership, so depending on who the Kings select as their next coach, the team could seize the division or plunge into Flames territory. Hiring a failed re-tread like Darryl Sutter, however, is a terrible idea, and one the other four teams in the division will welcome with open arms.

#5. Anaheim Ducks

2011 Record So Far: 9-16-5, 23 points

2011-12 Payroll: $60.5 million

How Wrong Were the Experts?: 3 McGuires

Offseason Grade: 1 Milburys

Hilarity Score: 5 Boudreaus

What Went Right: Teemu Selanne didn't retire. Other than that, the only good thing to happen to this team all season was sucking so hard that they snagged one of the NHL's top coaches in Bruce Boudreau (man, those Caps are really lighting it up since he left!)

What Went So, So Wrong: While some people are shocked by the Ducks being one of the three worst teams in the entire NHL, one astute hockey writer nailed it. The team performed far and above their abilities last season, masking their massive faults like a complete lack of NHL-quality defensemen and a top line that rarely bothers to skate back into its own zone until the red light goes on. Their third line is centered by a guy who can't win faceoffs. And most tellingly, their most high-profile defenseman is Cam Fowler -- the single worst player in the NHL last season -- who has shown zero improvement from his rookie season, where he potted a decent number of powerplay assists but was otherwise a boy among men on the ice. It's no secret that a team with Fowler on its roster simply can't protect a 1-0 or 2-0 lead for very long.

What To Expect: Besides nabbing Boudreau, the Ducks went ahead and made another shockingly excellent acquisition when they picked up Niklas Hagman off waivers (note the kind of mismanaged teams that get rid of Hagman), a lightning-fast highlight-reel scorer that plays excellently in all three zones. So maybe the bottom of the basement is not what's in store for this team after all. Sorry, Columbus!

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