Monday, June 17, 2013
Expect a sticky Monday afternoon in Dallas, then more rain until Wednesday
We'll be dry by mid-week.
UPDATE at 10:47 a.m.: Jennifer Dunn, a meteorologist with the Nationals Weather Service in Fort Worth, says the morning’s storms dropped anywhere from a quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rain across the area. She also says there are more chances for rain in the next 48 hours before they evaporate entirely for the foreseeable future.
Says Dunn, Dallas/Fort Worth International Aiport picked up .72 inches of rain, while Dallas Love Field came in with .47 inches. That’s nowhere near the June 17 record of 1.71 inches. Still, anything’s welcome.
And, says Dunn, more may be on the way: There’s that cold front that’s likely to drop past the Red River later this afternoon. Right now, it’s looking more like a scattered-shower event than a complete-coverage happening like this morning’s.
And “another complex may move in from West Texas and hit the region overnight and into tomorrow morning,” she says. “And there’s one more shot Tuesday night and into Wednesday as another complex from the Panhandle and West Texas may move across the area. Whether they’ll pan out, we’ll have to wait and see.”
This much, though, is certain: After Wednesday that ridge of high pressure known as The Cap will return.
“And after that,” Dunn says, “all our chances will be shut off.”
UPDATE at 9:43 a.m.: The welcome rain should be out of the area in the next hour or so. But getting into and out of Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport for the next little while won’t be so easy. The individual airlines have their own policies, but airport officials say flights are expected to have delays from 61 minutes to 75 minutes.
UPDATE at 7:27 a.m.: The storms are moving through quickly — at 50, 55 mph as they make their way toward and then through Dallas-Fort Worth. But the National Weather Service is warning that high winds and brief heavy downpours will accompany the storms as they make their way through, which could result in some ponding on area roadways — just in time for morning rush hour.
UPDATE at 6:43 a.m.: Denton County is now under a severe thunderstorm warning until 7:45 a.m.
Original item posted at 6:14 a.m.: Tuesday was supposed to be our best chance of rain this week as a cold front approaches North Texas, but a complex of storms dropping out of the Central Plains at this very moment now appears to be our surest shot at some wet stuff.
Initially, meteorologists thought the weak upper trough heading this way would get even weaker; at 2 a.m., they had our chance of rain this morning at 40 percent. Now, says Steve Fano of the National Weather Service in Fort Worth, “it’s slightly higher” — so much so he expects Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport to see some measurable precip between 7 and 8 a.m.
“These storms are holding together,” says Fano of the line that has already triggered severe thunderstorm warnings for, among others, Cooke and Jack Counties. “We anticipated they were going to weaken — and they should in the next couple of hours — but they’re moving fast enough that by 7 a.m. they should be knocking on the northern part of the Metroplex’s doorstep. Whether they’ll be severe or not, I think that’s unlikely. But I think we’ll see some rain, thunder, lightning. We’ll be sort of where the storms go to die but I do believe we’ll see them.”
These are the same storms that impacted the Plains states Sunday afternoon and evening. And they made it this far thanks to a northwest flow aloft and the Gulf moisture that made it so unpleasantly humid over the weekend.
“Right now it’s looking pretty darn good,” says Fano about our morning rain chances. “This complex isn’t showing much signs of weakening.”
You know what comes after: clearing skies, rising temperatures, and one miserably muggy afternoon — “sticky,” as Fano says.
“We’re still in the low 80s as of 6 a.m., so it might cool it down a bit,” he says. “There’s some pretty strong wind gusts behind this and some rain-cooled air. But it’ll stay extra humid.”
Which helps with our rain chances overnight and into Tuesday, with a cold front heading this way. The problem: Models now show that the front might stall around the Red River, which could cut off our chances at rain.
“And if that’s the case the best chances for rain will be north of the Metroplex,” says Fano. “Right now the best chances will be parts of Collin and Denton Counties and the northern suburbs. Right now, there’s still a 30 percent chance in the Metroplex proper.”